수입구조 변화와 LNG 도입가격: 북미산 LNG 비중확대의 실증적 효과 분석

초록

This study examines the determinants of Korea’s LNG import prices using monthly data from January 2002 to June 2024, with particular emphasis on the impact of an increasing share of U.S. LNG imports. Using a combination of traditional time series analysis and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques, including SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), the study examines the key economic and structural factors underlying LNG price formation in Korea. The results indicate that LNG import prices are shaped by a complex interaction of global price conditions and procurement structures. In particular, during the high oil price period since 2020, an increase in the share of U.S. LNG imports is found to mitigate import prices, suggesting that hub-indexed LNG can serve as a hedge against oil price shocks. These findings imply that a diversified LNG import strategy with an appropriate balance between long-term and spot contracts may enhance price stability and cost efficiency.

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