Decomposition analysis of the greenhouse gas emissions in Korea's electricity generation sector

초록

This paper analyzes the CO2 emissions from electricity generation in Korea during the period from 1990 to 2012 using both additive and multiplicative logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) factor decomposition methods. We decompose these emissions into five factors: production effect, generation mix effect I due to the changes in the ratio of fossil-fueled electricity production to the total electricity production, generation mix effect II due to the changes in fossil-fuel mix, generation efficiency effect, and emission factor effect. The results show that most factors cause an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, although the extent varies. In particular, first, the increase in GHG emissions of this sector is predominantly influenced by the production effect. Second, the electricity generation structure has been developing in a direction opposite to that of greenhouse gas mitigation, and the fossil-fuel mix contributed to increasing the GHG emissions. Third, the electricity generation efficiency deteriorated toward an increase of GHG emissions. Fourth, the emission factor effect has contributed, as the only positive factor, to decreasing greenhouse gas emissions, but its influence has remained negligible. Taking these results together, we suggest a couple of energy and environmental policies to achieve the greenhouse gas mitigation target of electricity generation.

키워드